An empirical framework for measuring how prepared Europe is for a protracted conflict, evaluated along two neglected dimensions: industrial mobilisation readiness (production capacity, defence-market potential, security of supply) and sustained whole-of-society resilience. It combines a situational assessment from historical and contemporary data with a forward-looking, model-based scenario simulation of a 'total trade war' systemic shock (decoupling from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea), quantifying losses in defence-industrial production and economic resilience and showing that pre-emptive de-risking is far cheaper than reacting after an abrupt shock.
The preparedness and readiness of Europe is currently being challenged not only by Russia, but since recently also by its long-standing allies. In response to the evolving external security environme…