Conceptual
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Claim Evaluation Checklist

Each skill in this path is most useful when you run them together on a real claim. A workable routine has six steps. One: clarify what exactly is being claimed and define its key term. Two: lay out the argument, its premises, conclusion and the assumption it leaves unsaid. Three: check the evidence: who says so and how they would know, whether it is anecdote or data, whether a correlation is being sold as a cause, and how common the thing is to begin with. Four: name any fallacy in the reasoning, and any bias pulling on you, especially if you want the claim to be true. Five: steelman the claim and list alternative explanations, so you are judging its best version against its real rivals. Six: state your conclusion with confidence matched to the evidence, and note what would change it. You will not need every step every time; most claims fail or pass early. The routine is a checklist for when it matters, not a ritual for every sentence. After this Concept you can take an everyday claim and work it through these steps to a conclusion stated with the confidence the evidence supports.

Questions this Concept answers

  • Why don't you need to run every step of the routine on every claim?