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Clock-Advance Description of the ETAS Earthquake Aftershock Model

A reformulation of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model in which the triggering effect of each earthquake is interpreted as a local clock advance of an independent background process rather than an added intensity. The full model solution becomes a convergent infinite Markov chain of time-adjusted background processes, which incorporates micro-seismic events at all magnitudes and removes the artificial minimum-triggering-magnitude cutoff.

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manuscript submitted to AGU The clock advance description of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model represents seismicity as a self-exciting point process in which background earthquakes trigger cascades of aftershocks, written as a time- and magni…