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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Covers how people choose between options when outcomes are probabilistic rather than certain, and why real choices systematically diverge from the predictions of expected-value theory. Draws on Kahneman and Tversky's heuristics-and-biases program to explain the shortcuts the mind uses under uncertainty. Used to anticipate where a team's estimates or risk judgments will be systematically biased.

Chief Galen Tyrol Video

Prospect Theory: Why Real Decisions Diverge from Expected Value

Covers Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory, showing how loss aversion and probability weighting make real decisions under uncertainty systematically diverge from expected-value predictions.