Fitting the Marchetti-Fisher-Pry logistic-substitution model to worldwide market-share data for internal-combustion, battery-electric/plug-in-hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, and independently to the substitution of non-polluting for fossil primary energy, this analysis forecasts that around 2037 the electricity demanded by the electric-vehicle fleet will equal the entire green-electricity supply produced at that time. The central inference is that electric vehicles entering the market after 2037 cannot be operated on green electricity and must draw increasingly on fossil-generated ('black') electricity, undermining their non-polluting rationale; the same S-curve fits project hydrogen-vehicle sales overtaking electric-vehicle sales around 2041.
The main advantage of electric vehicles, namely, their non-polluting operation, is compromised when the electricity they use comes from burning fossil fuels. The number of electric vehicles on the ro…