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Non-Ergodic Dynamics and Constraint-Based Capability Emergence in Large Language Models

A theoretical account of why new capabilities appear abruptly in large language models as they scale: language models are shown to be non-ergodic systems whose path-dependent generation breaks the equivalence of time and ensemble averages, so emergence must be modeled along trajectories rather than by averages. A resource-bounded version of Kauffman's adjacent-possible (TAP) equation integrates architectural, training-data, and contextual constraints multiplicatively, predicting discrete phase transitions in the model's semantic space that experiments on three language models corroborate through attention entropy and effective-dimensionality measurements.