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Overconfidence Effect

The well-documented tendency for people's subjective confidence in their own judgments to exceed the objective accuracy of those judgments. Shows up as narrow confidence intervals, over-precise estimates, and underestimation of how often one will turn out to be wrong. Used to explain why experienced planners keep giving estimates that turn out too optimistic despite past evidence.

Chief Galen Tyrol Video

The Overconfidence Effect: When Subjective Certainty Exceeds Actual Accuracy

A UT Austin Ethics Unwrapped short explaining the well-documented gap between people's confidence in their judgments and the objective accuracy of those judgments, with the classic 'better than avera…