Two Birth Populations of Trans-Neptunian Objects from Joint Color, Size and Lightcurve Modeling
A joint statistical analysis of 696 trans-Neptunian objects from the Dark Energy Survey, treating absolute magnitude, griz colors and lightcurve semi-amplitude as birthmarks tagging where each object formed rather than as evidence about surface physics. A Gaussian mixture model fitted in the space of g-r, r-i and i-z colors converges robustly on two components, called near-IR bright and near-IR faint, which reproduce the older red/blue visible bimodality but separate more cleanly once a near-infrared band is included. A Poisson point-process likelihood with importance-sampled measurement swarms and an explicit survey selection term then tests whether every dynamical class can be written as a mixture of just those two physical distributions with class-independent hyperparameters. It can: cold classicals are purely near-IR faint, while hot classicals, scattered and detached objects are roughly seventy percent near-IR bright, and resonant populations vary significantly. All objects share a common rolling absolute-magnitude distribution, but near-IR faint objects are markedly more variable in brightness. The near-IR bright components of hot classicals and some resonances have broader inclination distributions than their near-IR faint counterparts, so present-day dynamics still retains information about birth location, and hot-classical near-IR bright objects are on average redder than detached or scattered ones, indicating radial stratification within the birth population itself.
FERMILAB-PUB-24-0939-PPD DES-2024-0873 Draft version January 6, 2025 Typeset using LATEX preprint
For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes $5.5 < H_r < 8.2$ detected in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and phy…